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Soup Runs The Numbers
who will be the 2007 us superbike champ?
by evan williams
Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Can Spies repeat as champ?
image by phil fuson
The AMA Superbike championship sure tightened up after Mat Mladin won the last four races. Ben Spies' lead is now down to six points. There are three races to go.

The difference between first and second place is four points. There are five bonus tallies (three lap leader points and two pole points) still up for grabs, too. What will happen in Atlanta?

In every race but one this season, the winner has taken the point for most laps led. Let's assume that trend continues.

We also expect Spies and Mladin to dominate in Georgia. At the recent test there, the championship contenders had as much as a two second gap on the rest of the field. Unless something bizarre happens, it's not likely a third party gets involved.

If Spies wins both races in Atlanta, the championship is essentially his if he can finish with a decent result at Laguna Seca.

If Mladin wins both races in Georgia, takes pole and Spies finishes second, Mat will go into Laguna with a five-point lead. Spies will have to run the table at Laguna to win by a single point. Mladin holds the tiebreaker, most 2007 wins.

If they split the Atlanta races and lap leader points, Mladin will need to have earned that Road Atlanta pole, then max out at Laguna Seca to win the championship (if Spies finishes second each time). Otherwise, Spies takes the crown again. We expect qualifying at Road Atlanta to be a fierce battle.

Like we predicted a while back, the bonus points will go a long way in determining the championship.

Spies still has a lead and the upper hand, but Mladin has the momentum -- something he's joked about all season long in the post-race press conferences.

Perhaps more importantly, Mat also revealed after Sunday's race at VIR that his team received their new clutch. He said he's much more confident in being aggressive on the starts now, something that has held him back in several races in 2007.

ENDS

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