Jorge Lorenzo has won the MotoGP World Championship twice, so he knows all about title arithmetic.
And despite the breathless proclamations of some media, Lorenzo knows he still needs a hell of a lot of help at Motegi and Valencia to overhaul leader Marc Marquez and win his third crown despite Repsol Honda's critical math mistake last weekend at Phillip Island.
Lorenzo sliced Marquez's lead in the World Championship from 43 to 18 points after winning at Phillip Island, combined with Marquez's exclusion from the race for turning one more lap than allowed before making a mandatory pit stop due to eroding Bridgestone tires.
Still, there's only a five-point gap in points between finishing first and second. If Marquez finishes third in both races and Lorenzo wins both, then the riders will end up tied with 330 points. But Lorenzo would win the title because he would have eight victories, while Marquez would have only six.
But what are the chances of Repsol Honda letting Dani Pedrosa finish second ahead of Marquez? Very slim, one would think.
And Marquez has finished first or second in 11 of his 16 starts this season, so he probably won't need much help.
"We've been very lucky, because without that mistake from Marc, he would have been in first or second place (at Phillip Island), because he was very strong - as always," Lorenzo said. "Now the championship has changed so much.
"Before the race, we almost didn't have a chance, maybe 2 or 3 percent maximum. Now it's more like 20 percent or 30."