We're at that stage of the season when we have a very good idea what is going to happen. Jorge has to
get the holeshot and try and fend off the Hondas. If the Repsol bikes get in front they'll have a
scrap for a while and Marc Marquez will win. If the Repsols don't get in front they will have a fight
and Marc Marquez will finish second. Rossi will finish fourth. Bradl, Crutchlow and Bautista will
finish at varying distances depending on who's feeling good this weekend. The Ducatis will follow in
line astern. Espargaro will win the CRT race.
Any deviation from this plot can now be counted as a surprise. What will it take to provide that
surprise? Rain of course, although that's unlikely up here on the high plains of central Spain. Cal
Crutchlow could be the man to do it, although he is still getting over his arm injuries and confusion
over which fuel tank to use. There is also the question of fuel consumption, Aragon is a fuel heavy
track and both Valentino and Cal have to be careful at the best of times while Jorge won't have any
problems. Cal mutters about having to
do the out lap at 30kph and the warm-up lap at not much more while trying to warm his tyres up. Then
he has to sit next to a Honda rider gleefully revving his motor like a teenager at traffic lights. If
next season's 20-litre rule were in force now, reckons Cal, he'd have finished two races this year.
You may have to go to Moto3 for a surprise where Maria Herrera is wild-carding. She has won two
Spanish Championship races this year so don't expect her to be slow.